Analysis designates Leclerc as favorite for the home race, should Red Bull chase?

According to an analysis by technical F1TV analyst Sam Collins, it's not Red Bull Racing but Ferrari that emerges as the favorite. In the preview to the Monaco Grand Prix, the British analyst highlights the strengths of different teams. While Red Bull performs strongly in all areas, they will have to roll up their sleeves for the qualifying session in Monte Carlo on Saturday, as Ferrari seems to be performing slightly better in slow corners so far.

Collins distinguishes between slow, medium-speed, and fast corners, as well as straight sections, and it becomes clear that Red Bull is not gaining as much time on the straight sections compared to most of their competitors, an area where the RB19 is often praised. Instead, their advantage lies in the slow corners. Only Ferrari deviates from this trend. The Italian team only outperforms Alpine on the straight sections, but both Alpine and Ferrari can consider themselves fortunate that this aspect will hardly matter in Monaco.

In the slow corners, Ferrari has been one-tenth of a second faster than Red Bull so far, a significant statistic on the slow circuit of Monaco. The other eight teams, on the other hand, face a deficit of four-tenths or more compared to Red Bull. Based on this information, it appears that the qualifying session in Monaco will culminate in a battle between the gentlemen of Ferrari and Red Bull. Ferrari's disadvantage in the medium-speed and fast corners is also limited.

In addition to this data, there are other factors that are in favor of Ferrari. The Italian team has been the closest challenger to Red Bull so far but loses a lot of speed on Sundays. That will be less painful in Monaco as overtaking is virtually impossible. Additionally, Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc has excelled in qualifying sessions on street circuits for years. Leclerc was the fastest qualifier in Monaco in the past two years and also secured pole position in Baku for both races, following his pole positions there in 2021 and 2022.

Of course, the teams will be using completely different setups in Monaco, and there is a threat of rain, which may make the data less representative. However, Alpine can also draw hope from the released data as it matches Aston Martin in the slow corners and has been even faster than the Mercedes team. It seems like a challenging weekend awaits Haas, which performs better than Red Bull only on the straights, and AlphaTauri in Monaco.

Leclerc and Alonso are looking forward to Monaco

Leclerc is definitely looking forward to the weekend. "Monaco is very special. Firstly, it's a circuit in the middle of the city, and secondly, it's a historical circuit for Formula 1," the Monegasque driver says about his home race. "It's so intense for us, there's no margin for errors. Everything happens extremely quickly. There's no time to think while moving from one corner to the next - it's just one corner after another. This weekend is simply very special."

Alonso, the dinosaur of Formula 1 drivers, goes even further back in the history of the sport in his preview of the Monaco Grand Prix. "Monaco used to be the only street circuit on the calendar," says the Spaniard about a time when he himself was not even born. "There was no room for mistakes, you're surrounded by walls throughout the entire lap. It's the most challenging qualifying session of the season because you only have that one lap on Saturday that more or less determines the race on Sunday. It's challenging, stressful, but also beautiful. Winning in Monaco is very special."